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SabertoothPosted: Mar 06, 2013 - 20:46
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It´s almost a year old, but how does the be look now?

http://www.cnbc.com/id/48721839
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CyborgJesusPosted: Mar 08, 2013 - 07:54
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Go short the Euro, they said. You can't lose money, they said.

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SabertoothPosted: Mar 08, 2013 - 09:08
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Can you dumb it down for me?
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CyborgJesusPosted: Mar 08, 2013 - 11:27
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I'll try. I suck at finance, so there's chance I'll be spewing nonsense.

Blue & green lines top: Two ETFs that short Euros with 2x leverage. If Euros gain 1% value, you lose 2% and vice-versa. There's more, but that's the essence.
Red line: Difference between GBP and EUR. Rises with strong Pound or weak Euro.
Light green line: Same with € and $, but in reverse. You'd have to flip it horizontally, right now it's "long" EUR.
Light blue line is Dow Jones for comparison.

Rothschild bought in at July, so right now he's trailing both index funds and my own brilliant investment strategy of keeping a duffel bag full of money in my closet.
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SabertoothPosted: Mar 08, 2013 - 16:01
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Interesting, so you say Rotschild might be wrong?
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CyborgJesusPosted: Mar 10, 2013 - 13:56
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Dunno, really. I think there's too many people with no clue about macroeconomics offering their inappropriately specific predictions about what's going to happen - and then why it didn't, and why it's still just around the corner.

The only thing that's sure is that Rothschild's fund did not particularly benefit from its short position. If you compare the August 2012 with the October 2012 factsheet, you see their position flip from short to marginally long. The Annual Report (p.66) shows the reversal in proper context, i.e., their actual holdings in the respective currencies. We see that their negative position was more than a mere hedge (exceeding their non-liquid holdings in EUR by almost £100M) and has been changed to a marginally optimistic £34M.

Turns out, financial success is a tad more difficult than listening to CNBC.
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SabertoothPosted: Mar 10, 2013 - 16:07
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Quote from CyborgJesus

Dunno, really. I think there's too many people with no clue about macroeconomics offering their inappropriately specific predictions about what's going to happen - and then why it didn't, and why it's still just around the corner.

The only thing that's sure is that Rothschild's fund did not particularly benefit from its short position. If you compare the August 2012 with the October 2012 factsheet, you see their position flip from short to marginally long. The Annual Report (p.66) shows the reversal in proper context, i.e., their actual holdings in the respective currencies. We see that their negative position was more than a mere hedge (exceeding their non-liquid holdings in EUR by almost £100M) and has been changed to a marginally optimistic £34M.

Turns out, financial success is a tad more difficult than listening to CNBC.


I think I get you, so it was more of a matter of him covering all his bases.
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