This was an interesting article posted by Ben Gutzler over at "9/11 Conspiracy Theories are BS" Facebook group. I'm reproducing the whole article because I know not all of you are members of that group, and some of you (*ahem* MATT) don't have access to Facebook at all. I think this article is interesting because Ben tries to quantify how popular the major conspiracy sites are and have been over the last 2 years.
In short, good news for Alex Jones (though qualified good news), bad news for Merola and the Zeitgeisters, and really bad news for generally any adherents of 9/11 Twoof.
In July 2008, I took a look at the traffic statistics of a number of conspiracy-promotion websites to gauge how they were faring in their attempt to persuade people that everything they know is a lie, and that frequenting the sites' online stores is a great idea. Here's that original post:
http://www.facebook.com/topic.php?uid=2211830485&topic=5672
While that thread was illuminating, it lacked a long-term perspective. I decided to revisit the same sites' stats (as well as adding one new conspiracy site, ae911truth.org) two years later to see how things have changed. As before, this shouldn't be taken as a perfect study, but it hopefully can provide some insight into how the popularity of 9/11 conspiracy theories is changing over time.
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The Numbers (accessed 8/11/2008 and 7/2/2010):
Site Name
Date :: Reach (3 Month Average) :: Change In Reach (3 Months)
Reach is the percent of global internet users visiting the site.
Conspiracy Sites
PrisonPlanet.com
August 2008 :: 0.017% :: -9%
July 2010 :: 0.02850% :: +6%
2008-2010 Change In Reach: +68%
911truth.org
August 2008 :: 0.00113% :: -3%
July 2010 :: 0.00088 :: -14%
2008-2010 Change In Reach: -22%
911blogger.com
August 2008 :: 0.00185% :: -8%
July 2010 :: 0.00176% :: -16%
2008-2010 Change In Reach: -5%
911research.wtc7.net
August 2008 :: 0.0011% :: -3%
July 2010 :: 0.00094% :: -9%
2008-2010 Change In Reach: -15%
patriotsquestion911.com
August 2008 :: 0.00033% :: -25%
July 2010 :: 0.00021% :: -20%
2008-2010 Change In Reach: -36%
loosechange911.com
August 2008 :: 0.0009% :: +21%
July 2010 :: 0.00029% :: -23%
2008-2010 Change In Reach: -68%
zeitgeistmovie.com
August 2008 :: 0.00728% :: -23%
July 2010 :: 0.00338% :: -21%
2008-2010 Change In Reach: -54%
ae911truth.org
July 2010 :: 0.00085% :: -27%
August 2008 Average 3 Month Change In Reach: -7%
July 2010 Average 3 Month Change In Reach: -15%
2008-2010 Average Change in Reach: -19%
Debunking Sites
debunking911.com
August 2008 :: 0.00029% :: +29%
July 2010 :: 0.00035% :: -9%
2008-2010 Change In Reach: +21%
911myths.com
August 2008 :: 0.00017% :: +5%
July 2010 :: 0.00022% :: +6%
2008-2010 Change In Reach: +29%
August 2008 Average 3 Month Change In Reach: +17%
July 2010 Average 3 Month Change In Reach: -2%
2008-2010 Average Change in Reach: +25%
General Interest Sites
cnn.com
August 2008 :: 1.395% :: -7%
July 2010 :: 1.79500% :: +6%
2008-2010 Change In Reach: +29%
foxnews.com
August 2008 :: 0.2785% :: +4%
July 2010 :: 0.54310% :: +7%
2008-2010 Change In Reach: +95%
google.com
August 2008 :: 30.315% :: 0%
July 2010 :: 42.01600% :: +1%
2008-2010 Change In Reach: +39%
facebook.com
August 2008 :: 9.068% :: +27%
July 2010 :: 33.12600% :: +10%
2008-2010 Change In Reach: +265%
August 2008 Average 3 Month Change In Reach: +6%
July 2010 Average 3 Month Change In Reach: +6%
2008-2010 Average Change in Reach: +107%
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From these data, it certainly appears that the popularity of the 9/11 conspiracy theories is in a continuing tailspin, with one notable exception (more on that in a moment). Debunking site traffic, though still below that of most of the conspiracy sites examined, has risen over the last two years, while the average reach of the conspiracy sites has dropped nearly 20% over the same timespan. The infamous "Loose Change," one of the best-known icons of the 9/11 conspiracy theorist movement, has seen its reach drop 68% in two years (though to be fair, that doesn't count views on websites like YouTube). The site of the other mainstay movie, "Zeitgeist," has experienced a 54% fall in reach. Based on this, it would certainly appear that John Ray was correct in stating in his eSkeptic article that "the 9/11 conspiracy movement is a shell of what it once was."
The one apparent outlier is PrisonPlanet's website. In the last two years, it has undeniably experienced some traffic growth. However, the 68% uptick seen between the August 2008 and July 2010 reach values may be misleading. Take a look at a graph of the reach statistics for the last six months:
http://img9.imageshack.us/img9/4/alexapp.png<br />
For the most part, the reach has been averaging perhaps 0.025%. There has been a spike over the last few weeks, resulting in an inflated average. However, given that a previous spike in traffic occurred in February and lasted just a couple of weeks before a return to low-level normalcy, it is probably a reasonably safe bet to assume that PrisonPlanet's traffic will fall off again slightly in relatively short order. My personal guess is that PrisonPlanet has managed to remain at least marginally influential (compared to its fellows) by diversifying. Instead of just pushing 9/11 conspiracy theories, PrisonPlanet peddles a broad range of paranoia. While interest in the 9/11 conspiracy theories has dropped dramatically, Alex Jones has positioned PrisonPlanet such that it's not unidimensional, and can appeal to fear centered on a variety of issues, and thus keeps its traffic up even when previously hot-button subjects are relegated to the dustbin of history. Even so, it's possible that PrisonPlanet is headed for a decline. Here is a graph for the last six months of the percentage of visits to the site from a search engine (with Google for a baseline comparison, because people really don't search FOR Google much):
http://img806.imageshack.us/img806/7917/alexappsearchescompare.png<br />
Notice the slow but clear declining trend of the graph. Given that search engines are probably one of the most common ways for new visitors to locate a website, this suggests that fewer "new recruits" are finding their way to PrisonPlanet. If we couple the data from that graph with the reasonably consistent pattern of the previously shown overall reach graph, one likely interpretation is that PrisonPlanet's "community" is coalescing into a relatively small number of true believers, who are remaining reasonably constant in size.
There will always be people who prefer the conspiratorial explanation for world events, but if they hide themselves away and fewer people find their way into that camp, I think it's fair to say that the irrationality is more or less contained. While most of the conspiracy-promotion sites wither on the vine, others become stagnant, and the ideas being sold in such places grow less and less prevalent and influential. At least, that's my hope. It will be worth keeping an eye on these trends for at least the next few years to see if it's borne out.
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Sources
http://blog.nielsen.com/nielsenwire/online_mobile/top-u-s-web-sites-and-brands-for-may-2010/<br />
http://www.nielsen-online.com/pr/pr_080812.pdf<br />
http://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/prisonplanet.com<br />
http://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/911truth.org<br />
http://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/911blogger.com<br />
http://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/911research.wtc7.net<br />
http://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/patriotsquestion911.com<br />
http://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/loosechange911.com<br />
http://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/zeitgeistmovie.com<br />
http://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/ae911truth.org<br />
http://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/debunking911.com<br />
http://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/911myths.com<br />
http://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/cnn.com<br />
http://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/foxnews.com<br />
http://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/google.com<br />
http://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/facebook.com<br />
http://www.skeptic.com/eskeptic/08-06-04/#feature</p>
